Brazil election: Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro face first-round vote today

Brazil election day has arrived, and the first round decides far less than the headlines suggest. Voters choose a president on Sunday, 4 October. If nobody wins a majority, the top two face a runoff on 25 October.

Incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is seeking a fourth term. His main rival is Senator Flavio Bolsonaro. The final polls point to a lead for Lula in round one and a very tight second round.

What the final polls show before the Brazil election

Two surveys were taken between 24 and 27 September. The Quaest poll put Lula on 39 percent and Bolsonaro on 34 percent for the first round. The BTG Pactual/Nexus poll had Lula on 42 and Bolsonaro on 37.

Each poll surveyed about 2,000 people. Each carries a margin of error of two points. That matters, because the runoff numbers sit inside it.

Quaest found Lula and Bolsonaro tied at 42 percent in a runoff. BTG/Nexus gave Lula 46 and Bolsonaro 44. Both are statistical ties.

Why the runoff matters

A tie in the polls means turnout will decide the contest. Brazil has compulsory voting, but enforcement is weak. Rural and urban voters often split sharply.

The race has been close for weeks. Polling cannot capture how late-deciding voters will break.

Results should arrive on Sunday evening local time. Brazil’s electronic voting system usually reports quickly. A clear Lula win in round one would end the race early. The polls suggest that is unlikely.

Watch the gap between the two men, not the headline winner. Many voters say they decided late. Others still say they could change their minds. A narrow margin points to three more weeks of campaigning. It also raises the stakes for the congressional races held on the same day. Those races will shape how much either man can actually pass in Brasilia. A weak mandate would make governing harder.

For more world coverage, see our report on Trump’s rejection of an Iran ceasefire.

Fact basis: The Star (Malaysia) on the Quaest and BTG Pactual/Nexus polls; Al Jazeera, 3 October 2026 (election timing). Polls are snapshots, not predictions.