Brazil election runoff set as Flavio Bolsonaro edges Lula in first round

A Brazil election runoff is now certain after Flavio Bolsonaro narrowly led President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Sunday’s first round. Neither man cleared the 50 percent needed to win outright. The two meet again on 25 October.

With 99 percent of ballots counted, Bolsonaro had 47.2 percent and Lula 45 percent, The Daily Star reported. NPR, at 97 percent counted, had 47.45 and 44.66. The gap is small. The symbolism is large. Polls had suggested Lula might finish slightly ahead.

What the Brazil election runoff means

Bolsonaro is a 45-year-old senator and the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. Lula is 80 and seeks a fourth term. He governed from 2003 to 2010. Bolsonaro credited “protest votes” against the incumbent for his strong showing.

Lula struck a defiant tone. He said a new campaign starts tomorrow and that he is “very good in the knockout stage”. Bolsonaro said Brazil would deliver a definitive answer by choosing a modern government.

The campaign centred on the economy, crime and relations with the Trump administration. Lula stressed democracy and welfare programmes. Bolsonaro focused on security and tax cuts and attacked the cost of living. He has also promised to move Brazil’s embassy to Jerusalem and restore ties with Israel. Lula has criticised Israel’s Gaza operations.

Analyst Fabio de Sa e Silva said momentum lies with the right, though Lula still has a path. Researchers also point to a significant far-right advance in Congress. That could complicate governing whoever wins.

We previewed the vote in our earlier report on the first round. Three weeks of campaigning now follow. Turnout, prices and the fight over each candidate’s coalition will decide the result.

The result also matters beyond Brazil. It is Latin America’s largest democracy and a major farm and mineral exporter. Investors, allies and rivals will study the three weeks ahead closely. Both camps now court the small share of voters who backed neither man.

Fact basis: The Daily Star, NPR (4 October 2026) and Ynet News. Vote counts were partial and may change.